A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
